In a striking last-minute shift, the Romney campaign has decided to
invest its most precious resource — the candidate’s time — in a serious
play to win Pennsylvania.
Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama,
or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents
the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored
in the race for the White House.
Over the last several days, with polls showing Mr. Obama’s edge in the
state narrowing, Republicans have sprung into action and forced the
Democrats to spend resources here that could have gone toward more
competitive battleground states.
Conservative super PACs dusted off old advertisements that had not been
shown in weeks and shipped them to local television stations from
Scranton to Pittsburgh. They ordered millions of dollars in airtime.
And overnight the race here became the most expensive test yet of
whether Republicans and their armies of cash-flush outside groups could
unsettle the race at the last minute.
The super PACs helped create an opening that paved the way for the
Romney campaign to start making its move. The campaign has already
invested $1 million in television advertising across the state, and on
Thursday it bolstered that effort even further with a new round of
commercials that will ensure a heavy and continuous presence through
Election Day.
This came as the Republican National Committee made one of its largest
commitments of the race so far, dropping $2.5 million into the state.
Forced to respond, the Obama campaign has put more than $1.5 million
into an ad campaign here and is planning even more. Democrats are saying
that the race is much closer than they would have guessed just a week
ago.
“It’s a little tighter than I would have expected,” said Jef Pollock, a
pollster for Priorities U.S.A. Action, a Democratic super PAC. “But the
question is whether this is just the natural tightening that’s going to
happen.”
Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every
election for the last 20 years. Independent pollsters have called it the
Republicans’ white whale. Indeed, polls show Mr. Obama ahead, albeit by
a shrinking margin. And his senior political strategist, David Axelrod,
even joked this week that he would shave off his mustache of 40 years
if they lose here.
But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the
expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the
excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in
their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.
If ever there were a place where a last-ditch torrent of money could
move the needle, this is it. For the last couple of months, there has
been a void of presidential ads in Pennsylvania. So when Republican
strategists looked for places where their money could go the furthest,
they set their sights here, reasoning that a dollar spent in Erie or
Altoona would have a greater impact than in a place like Las Vegas or
Cleveland, where political commercials have clogged the airwaves.
Republicans believe that even if they cannot stop the president from
winning the state — and rob him of its crucial 20 electoral votes — they
can cut into his margins with certain key demographics. Mr. Obama
carried the state by 10 points in 2008, a victory in large part because
of strong support in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs, some of
which he carried by 20 points.
But those counties, which are full of upper-middle-class women and
Jewish voters, are precisely the places where Republicans believe their
efforts are paying off most.
“The biggest drop-off for the president has been in these more suburban,
upper-class areas,” said Jim Lee, the president of Susquehanna Polling
and Research, a Republican firm. “The women there tend to be very
moderate, pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights. And they don’t
fear a Romney presidency like they would maybe a Rick Santorum
presidency. I don’t think Obama has been able to convince them that
Romney is a radical.”
Liberal groups like Planned Parenthood said that some of the
Republicans’ recent messaging is helping the Republican close the gap
with women. Among recent ads is one in which a woman directly refutes
Obama ads that portray Mr. Romney as extreme on reproductive health
issues.
To counteract this push, Planned Parenthood is leaving leaflets that
resemble a pink wallet at the doorsteps of homes across the state. In
it, women read that “Electing Mitt Romney could cost you $407,000,” a plea to the pocketbook issues that both sides believe are motivating women this year.
But as Democratic groups and the Obama campaign press their case, the
Republicans have a formidable operation of their own. For months now, a
locally based group called Let Freedom Ring says it has spent more than
$2 million on an online ad campaign that has been viewed 30 million
times. It targets women who visit the Web sites of HGTV, Vogue and
People with ads that run before online videos.
In one,
a young woman asks her friend about Mitt Romney. “I don’t know. He’s
not as cool. And he’s a Republican,” she responds before deciding that
yes, she will go with “Mr. Dependable” over “Mr. Cool.”
Americans for Prosperity, the conservative advocacy group financed with
the help of the Koch brothers, has a chapter here that says it has made
more than 200,000 phone calls in October. Many of the callers, they say,
are mothers who volunteer from home.
“This is perfect for women,” said Jennifer Sefano, the group’s director
in Pennsylvania. “You don’t have to pay for a baby sitter. You don’t
even have to leave the house.”
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