Obama bets electorate matches 2008 _ and wins

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney made sharply different bets about who would vote this year.

It turned out that Americans who cast ballots looked collectively much more like what Obama had envisioned — a diverse tapestry that reflected a changing America — than the whiter, older electorate Romney had banked on.

Younger voters and minorities came to the polls at levels not far off from the historic coalition Obama assembled in 2008. The reality caught off-guard Republicans who banked on a more monolithic voting body sending them to the White House — and who had based their polling on that assumption.

The outcome revealed a stark problem for Republicans: If they don't broaden their tent, they won't move forward.

And it foreshadowed changes over the next generation that could put long-held Republican states onto the political battleground maps of the future.

"Clearly, when you look at African-American and Latino voters, they went overwhelmingly for the president," said John Stineman, a Republican strategist from Iowa. "And that's certainly a gap that's going to require a lot of attention from Republicans."

In exit polling Tuesday, voters mirrored the voting public's makeup of four years ago, when Obama shattered minority voting barriers and drove young voters to the polls unlike any candidate in generations.

White voters made up 72 percent of the electorate — less than four years ago — while black voters remained at 13 percent and Hispanics increased from 9 percent to 10 percent.

That flew in the face of GOP assumptions that the fierce economic headwinds of the past three years and the passing of the novelty of the first African-American president would trim Obama's support from black voters, perhaps enough to make the difference in a close election.

However, Obama carried Virginia, the heart of the old South, in part by having increased his record support from black voters there in 2008, which reached 18 percent, to more than 20 percent, according to Obama campaign internal tracking polls.

It was also reflected in turnout that matched his 2008 totals in places like Cleveland, which helped Obama carry Ohio solidly despite Romney's all-out effort there in the campaign's final weeks.

"Republicans have been saying for months" that Obama's black support would slip, Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. "And what happens? When African-Americans had the chance to affirm him, they came out in droves."

Obama won in 2008 by carrying several long-held Republican states, including North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. And while Romney easily carried Indiana and narrowly peeled back North Carolina, the fact that Obama held Virginia points to a long-term demographic shift that survived the pressures of the poor economy.

Obama carried each contested state except North Carolina by aggressively registering first-time voters. He matched his share of the youth vote from 2008, and nearly matched his support from seniors.

The 2012 electorate mirrored 2008 in terms of party identification and racial makeup, with self-identified Democrats topping Republicans and independents.

During his victory speech Tuesday, Obama nodded to the Democratic coalition he had held together.

"It doesn't matter if you're black or white, or Hispanic or Asian, or Native American, or young or old or rich or poor, able, disabled, gay or straight," Obama told his crowd of supporters gathered in Chicago. "You can make it here in America if you're willing to try."

The minority and youth turnout was not the only assumption Romney made that turned out to be wrong.

While voters considered the economy the driving issue in the election, they did not hold Obama wholly responsible, as Romney long had assumed they would.

That realization forced Romney to pivot late in the campaign and attempt to turn the election into a choice of competing visions. Republicans argued late in the campaign that Romney's performance during the first of three debates had energized a groundswell of enthusiasm seen in their polling.

But it seemed Obama's support was quietly amassing with more vigor, GOP strategists said.

"There really wasn't an enthusiasm gap," said Republican strategist Charlie Black, an informal Romney adviser. "And independents didn't break our way."

In California, a Tight Battle Over a Tax Initiative to Help Schools

SAN FRANCISCO — California voters weighed in on a ballot measure Tuesday that would raise taxes by $6 billion annually over seven years, bringing an end to an acrimonious, $123 million battle between Gov. Jerry Brown, who said the money was necessary to save the state’s public schools, and conservative opponents in and outside the state.

With 53 percent of precincts reporting, and recent polls indicating that the campaign over the measure was too close to call, its fate remained unclear.

Such a struggle was not unique to California. Voters in 38 states considered more than 170 ballot measures on a range of fiscal, political and social issues that in many cases resonated nationally.

Voters in Colorado and Washington made their states the first to legalize marijuana for recreational use. In Oregon, a similar measure appeared headed for defeat.

Supporters of Washington’s initiative said they hoped its passage would ultimately change federal law, which regards any possession or sale of marijuana as illegal.

“By sending this message, we can hopefully have a collaborative conversation with the federal government, and that they can see that their policy can be done differently and that prohibition is not working,” said Tonia S. Winchester, outreach director for the campaign behind the measure, Yes on I-502.

In Maryland, voters endorsed a ballot measure allowing in-state tuition at public colleges for illegal immigrants. Massachusetts was considering whether to legalize physician-assisted suicide for people with terminal illnesses. Though most of the votes were counted, the result was too close to call.

But nowhere was the fight over ballot measures fiercer than in California, where spending on campaigning for and against 11 measures totaled nearly $370 million, according toMapLight, an organization that tracks campaign spending.

Under Mr. Brown’s tax initiative, or Proposition 30, income tax rates for those earning more than $250,000 annually would be raised for seven years, and a one-quarter-cent increase in the state sales tax would be put in place for four years. Without the new revenue, Mr. Brown said, California would need to cut $6 billion a year in spending, mostly from the state’s already battered education system — a threat that appeared to have persuaded some voters on Tuesday.

“We need more funding for the schools,” said Omega Jules, 31, who lives in Oakland and works for United Parcel Service of America. “They keep taking money out of education, and that is where we need it most.”

Supported by California teachers’ unions, Mr. Brown was tenacious in seeking support for the initiative, but he encountered fierce and sometimes unexpected opposition. Last month, an obscure Arizona group called Americans for Responsible Leadership donated $11 million, in part to defeat Proposition 30. Also, Molly Munger, a civil rights lawyer and the daughter of Warren E. Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway, Charles Munger, spent more than $44 million on a rival tax measure, Proposition 38, which was overwhelmingly defeated.

About $135 million was spent in the battle over Proposition 32, which would outlaw political donations by labor unions.

Also in California, voters considered an initiative to end the death penalty. Supporters, including law enforcement officials, argued that administering the death penalty was inefficient and that eliminating it would save the state money. The argument appeared to have swayed voters, even those who did not oppose the practice on moral grounds.

“It would be one thing if they said they were going to kill a criminal and then did it the next day,” said Lamarr Standberry, an Oakland resident who voted to repeal the death penalty. “If you’re going to do it, then just do it already. Instead it takes forever and costs a lot.”

Voters appeared to endorse a measure that would make the state’s three-strikes law somewhat more lenient by imposing a life sentence only for a third felony conviction considered serious or violent. California also considered a measure to make mandatory the labeling of genetically modified food.

Two crucial education measures put charter schools on state ballots. By a wide margin, Georgia voters approved an amendment to the state Constitution that will allow for the creation of a commission to authorize new charter schools, which are publicly financed but independently operated. The measure drew national attention and campaign contributions from Alice Walton, the daughter of Sam Walton, Walmart’s founder, and Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party organization founded by the billionaire Koch brothers.

In Washington, voters were asked to allow charters into the state for the first time. Similar measures had failed three times in the past 16 years.

Michigan voters considered a measure that would expand the powers of emergency administrators to take over financially troubled local governments, and the ability of governors to appoint them. Another proposal that would make collective bargaining a right for employees in the public and private sectors appeared headed for defeat.

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